How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."

• Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
• Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing summit is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia done," he declared.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.

Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.

In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.

The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.

But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.

"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.

Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.